

"Not everyone who believes in a conspiracy is unreasonable or unthinking. All of these cases are testament to the fact that conspiracies and mass cover-ups do occur, but that they don't last very long. Grimes also analysed the FBI forensic analysis scandal. That conspiracy involved up to an estimated 6,700 people, and was eventually revealed around 25 years later by one of the doctors involved. He also factored in the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, where the cure for syphilis - penicillin - was purposefully withheld from African-American patients. To create the equation, Grimes had to first establish the probability of a cover-up being exposed over time. To do this, he considered three IRL, confirmed conspiracies, including the US National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance program that was famously uncovered by Edward Snowden after just six years. The calculations were based upon the best-case scenario for conspirators, which means that Grimes's equation assumed that conspirators are really good at keeping secrets, and that no external investigations were going on. The suppression of a cancer cure would have been leaked by someone inside big pharma in just 3.2 years.


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He applied his equation to four big conspiracy theories: the belief that vaccines cause autism that climate change isn't real that the Moon landing was a hoax and that a cure for cancer already exists, but is being hidden by big pharmaceutical companies. Get Secrets of the Moon setlists - view them, share them, discuss them with other Secrets of the Moon fans for free on setlist.fm. "To do that, I looked at the vital requirement for a viable conspiracy – secrecy." "It is common to dismiss conspiracy theories and their proponents out of hand but I wanted to take the opposite approach, to see how these conspiracies might be possible," he explained.
